Black Markets, Changes, Innovations And Opportunities In World Trade
The coronavirus has led to developments in the world that will cause not only health and closure to the home, but also changes in the commercial methods used in the world for a long time. It is subject to changes based on mutual trust and known direction and methods of trade. So how did we come to this process?
In the pandemic process, USA; While they confiscated the masks of Germany and France, they seized the masks of the USA and Italy in Germany, and the masks of Italy in France. Italy seized Tunisia’s medical alcohol ship, and the Czech Republic seized Italy’s masks. We can extend this list by pages.
Coronavirus increased interstate piracy in the basic need for health. Europe and the USA, which have been shown as the center of safe trade for a long time, have experienced events that are not seen even in third world countries due to their health products. If states do this, it is not difficult to think about what companies will do to each other in a few years. This will lead to the development of black market environments.
This atmosphere of distrust shows that in the medium and long term, some very important goods will have trouble traveling internationally. During the pandemic period, Land Rover carried some important side parts from China to England with suitcases. Currently, prejudices against Chinese goods have started in many European countries, and this will continue to increase.
We have seen and continue to see that it is obvious that it is impossible to act by excluding China in production during this crisis period. Therefore the country of origin of the change that is unacceptable to China’s European production will be sufficient to overcome era in Turkey and other countries. Of course, we can also evaluate food products that will not be sold to Europe by China. A dual origin of the changes will not be seen on the chance to offer opportunities to countries such as Turkey and Georgia. Black market markets are both a risk and an opportunity.
What are the general reflexes of the black market markets?
Black market economies are the main reflection of the disorganized economy. The absence of a commodity, import prohibition, and quotas lead to unregistered arrivals of the sought commodities and continue with uncontrolled buying and selling in the retail market. Products such as cigarettes, drinks, watches, etc. were sold in the black market for many years. But recently, health products and food have also been falling into black market markets. In whichever sector the bans and obstacles come, black market markets are formed in that sector.
People’s expectations and bluffs, races against time and inconsistent attitudes are common situations in black market shopping. With such mutual measurements, the price of the goods is determined at that moment. The goods can be sold 10 times higher than the market price.
The economic war, which started for about 3 years between the USA and China, was actually the moves that laid the first foundations of black market. These two production and consumption giants are so interdependent in economic and industrial wars. The quotas they put on each other will lead to more growth of invisible trade. How will the production and technology coming from India and China open up to the Western market on a regular and planned basis? Who will combine these equations?
The Mediterranean basin conceives the most important trade opportunities of the last century. Logistics and Customs firms that can manage to get organized can capture the most important opportunities of the last 20 years with the right “Market researches and Sales network” and commercially skip the class. We are ready to establish companies and partnerships that want to combine this picture.
Mandatory Route Change Requirement in Turkish Foreign Trade Policy
The most striking situation in the international relations during the epidemic was the decreasing confidence between the countries. While single bloc countries such as China and Russia do not experience internal fragmentation due to their central movement, the Western world has entered a disintegration process in every aspect from NATO to the EU.
With regard to NATO, France fired a wick when the union said its function was over, while the EU and the southern countries took a stand against each other in the economic recovery packages. Although an agreement was reached at the end, the clashes within the union became clear. In the early periods of the epidemic, the confiscation of each other’s property was the moment when the first signals of today’s life were given.
The European Union (EU) Commission stated that the Corona virus outbreak crisis affected the European economy more than expected. Revising its estimates for the end of 2020, which it previously announced, the Commission announced that a contraction of 8.3 percent is expected in EU countries by the end of the year. In its estimation announced last May, the EU Commission shared its expectation of contraction with the public at 7.7 percent, stating that “EU countries are being dragged into an unprecedented economic recession”.
If we need to share our decreasing exports in the EU with the figures that have changed compared to last year; Italy – 26.33%, France – 25.13%, Sweden – 16.94%, Bulgaria – 16.89%, England – 15.63%, Germany – 13.10% exports decreased.
One of the issues I mentioned in my previous articles was that European dependent exports in foreign trade would not be sustainable. Approximately 50 percent of our exports are carried out through Europe, while blood loss is serious in the Arab market and the Middle East. In the Libya crisis, we lost the Saudi Arabia, Egypt and United Arab Emirates market. semi-state of war with Syria and Iraq’s border with Turkey, claiming infringement of two notes not taken into consideration if a serious economic crisis in the medium term it seems very likely trigger.
UAE in Libya and Arabia Turkey trade to a minimum indirges also the real danger is not here, prevailing over Libya for a long time in Italy and plays an important role in the overthrow Gaddafi, France. Countries such as Britain and Turkey may seem, this is no longer supported by the United States dominates the EU and its allies it is also not reliable. In the instant interest changes, they can change their location quickly. At this point, with the maneuvers on Cyprus, the lobbies of Greece and Southern Cyprus will act with France, an active ally in the EU.
If these policies continue, the break with the EU, to which we bind 50 percent of our economy, seems inevitable. The Hagia Sophia move will sharpen all these moves. It is necessary to be ready for sudden changes, not in the long term, but in a medium term.
In short, in the coming days, it will open to new markets, especially the South Asian market, or it will experience the biggest collapse in its 100-year history. I repeat the warning I give to companies every time I write and consult; If you do not move away from the usual and memorized movements and produce an innovative solution, you may experience serious collapse. Serious crises are overcome by non-memorizing methods.
An Overview About South Asia
A familiar analysis in the Asian market is always China’s growth friends. But a significant part of the market that is overlooked is working. India, Indonesia, Philippines etc. Parabolic growth is observed in their economies. In Turkey, more than half the world’s population in this market, our market volume per thousand for 15 – 20 corresponds to the range.
Internal Market recession is rising day by day in Turkey. Finding new markets and developing lasting relationships in these markets is a job that visionary businessmen used to do, but it is imperative to have a business that survives in the new period.
Turkey is a country that is geographically based in the Middle East to Europe and foreign trade. EU exports, the share of Turkey’s exports in the economy, while 48.2% Middle East 15 percent%. Turkey’s highest foreign sales figure with Net realized as 82.2 billion dollars in EU regions, 26.1 billion dollars, the Middle East, Africa 15.5 billion dollars, 12.9 billion dollars and 9.4 billion dollars with the CIS and the North American Free Trade Area.
While the change in the world is so fast, it will be commercial suicide itself to take part in the same markets using the same methods. The stagnation in the European market, Turkey and war risks policies in the Middle East markets already show that you should make moves to alternative markets. Every new market has risks as well as opportunities. Some of the moves to be made today will give immediate results, while some will yield within 1-2 years.
When we examine the growth of the e-commerce sector in the world, this year, 5 countries take the lead in the South Asian market; India with 19.8%, Malaysia with 17.6%, Indonesia with 16.6%, Philippines with 15.2%, Vietnam with 13.5%. The fact that the top 5 leaves the Asian market gives a very clear idea in this regard. It is estimated that only India’s e-commerce growth in the domestic market will be 125 billion dollars in 3 years. In addition, access to the Internet in this country is as small as 36%. While 462 million people access the internet, a huge population of one billion waiting to enter the internet is waiting behind. The South Asian tsunami will begin to spread to world trade when this huge human resource waiting to access the internet due to lack of infrastructure starts to access the internet with mobile phones.
With a Gross Domestic Product of 2.83 Trillion Dollars this year, India surpassed the UK and France economies. On the other hand, given the average age of 28.1 and the population increase of 15 million every year, we will see the fall of Europe and the rise of South Asia in the next 10 years.
The advancing average age of the European market indicates that this market will experience economic stagnation in the next few years. While the country with the highest average age in Europe in 2018 was Italy with an average age of 46.3. Germany follows Italy with an average age of 46.0. The average age of the population is 43.6 in Spain, 42.7 in Finland, 41.6 in France and 40.1 in the UK. By looking at these data, it will be easy to understand the stagnation of a manufacturing giant economy like Germany.
In the Middle East market, political risks are more prominent than numerical data. Sarraj take place in Turkey’s side of the Libyan crisis and supporting Hafter United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt as originating from take against the perception of Turkey in this market seems to be going backwards. This move creates a negative impression in countries such as France, Germany and Russia, which also support Haftar.
Summaries Turkey to go out ways to increase the political turmoil in the Middle East quagmire, if basing on the EU economy will suffer all the difficulties can not be treated in the not too long future economy. For this reason, considering the medium and long term, the secret of entering the South Asian market is already to work. If we look at the Asian market as much as we look at the European market, we can create companies with two feet on the ground. Companies, on the other hand, can easily overcome basic problems with healthy business partners with whom they can conduct research and pre-market intelligence studies. In short, as stable countries such as Europe are declining in the coming days, it seems like “Light rises from the East”.